Emissions and aviation: moving towards consensus or conflict

This week a key European Parliament environment committee voted to bring forward emissions trading for airlines from 2012 to 2011, with a cap on emissions to be harmonised with other industries the following year. This would apply to all flights touching European Union territory. The European Parliament is to expected to take a final vote in July.

The fact that the EU is at least taking a realistic approach to address what is clearly a critical issue for the industry is generally a positive step. One thing the industry needs is a firm government platform to work from – and, increasingly, the public demands that this high profile business be seen to move quickly.

But the forecasts of traffic growth are most extreme in geographical regions outside Europe, so there is some irony in the fact that a European body would drive the global agenda. After all, as IATA has observed, European governments – as opposed to the commercial operators themselves – could make the quickest and most effective emissions reductions, of 12 million tonnes a year, just by rationalising Europe’s archaic airspace system and accelerating the move to a single European sky.

However, irony is generally lost on elected governments and there are many political agendas thriving beneath the headline issue of climate change. In fact the European Commission itself is in some ways between a rock and a hard place. Always the villain, it now finds itself between some of the more outlandish climate change activists and the rest of the world.
The UK – government and public – lays claim to the former, with a blunt environment tax on aviation whose effect is solely to fatten the Treasury, and a popular movement whose more extreme voices would shut down airline growth immediately.

But, outside the EU, the rest of the world is poorly represented to influence the EU moves and the backlash will build against what is seen as another example of “unilateralism” from Europe. The US government – overseeing another third of world aviation - is slowly recognising the problem and will probably take a more active role once a new President is elected next year.

The remaining third of world aviation – and the one to grow most significantly in the next two decades – is in Asia. Here, voices are fragmented and positions vary fundamentally. There is no oversight body, not even a regional ICAO grouping, the only region in the world not to be represented in this way. The regional airline association, while active in this area, does not represent the Chinese or Indian airlines.

It is these two countries too that have the most to lose in aviation development if new constraints are imposed over which they have no say.
On an issue of such moment and with dramatic long term implications, the EU will be well advised to adapt its inward-looking procedures to take account of the views of these other interested parties.

Implementing rules which then provoke painful bilateral disputes – as these measures inevitably will – probably accompanied by extensive legal action, is not in anyone’s best interests.

A little EU attention now to the niceties of international relations could reap massive, and durable, dividends.

*This is the Perspective from today's edition of Europe Airline Daily - the comprehensive new pre-digested daily update on strategic news from Europe, saving you time and keeping you right up to date. Complimentary subscriptions to this report are currently available. Register now !